Despite record-breaking population growth, housing starts in Canada have remained virtually flat, a trend that has raised concerns over the province’s ability to meet its housing targets and address a worsening affordability crisis.
Data released this month by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) show that housing starts in Ontario have fallen to levels not seen since the 2009 recession. In March 2025, housing starts were down 46 percent year-over-year in municipalities with populations of 10,000 or more, even as the province’s population continues to grow at an unprecedented pace.
The disconnect between population growth and new housing supply is creating increasing strain on housing markets with affordability slipping further out of reach for many Canadians. A recent Fraser Institute report noted that Canada is now seeing over five new residents for every housing start, compared to a long-term average of just under two.
In Ontario, Premier Doug Ford’s government has pledged to build 1.5 million new homes by 2031. However, recent figures suggest the province is falling behind. “Obviously, we’ve come to a grind,” said newly appointed Housing Minister Rob Flack last week, admitting the pace of construction has slowed. Flack remains optimistic, insisting there is still “lots of time” to meet the province’s long-term goals.
To address the shortfall, the Ford government has introduced a series of housing-enabling policies, including standardizing development timelines, fast-tracking permits, and streamlining approval processes. New legislation also aims to accelerate interprovincial trade and workforce mobility, in hopes of reducing costs and increasing construction productivity.
However, industry experts say those measures have yet to translate into actual building activity. The policies sound promising, but construction is still not happening at the scale required, with coordination and execution being blamed for these shortfalls.
Builders also cite rising interest rates, material costs, and labour shortages as major obstacles to ramping up construction. Additionally, a new round of U.S. tariffs has increased costs for imported construction materials, further complicating Canada’s infrastructure and housing goals.
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As the affordability crisis deepens, housing analysts warn that unless homebuilding accelerates significantly, the gap between supply and demand will only widen, making home ownership an even more distant dream for the province’s growing population.
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